Bitcoin has climbed to its highest levels in two weeks, trading near $64,000 as traders position for potential continuation higher. According to reporting by CoinTelegraph, the move comes amid broadening bullish signals across equities and a marked cooldown in panic selling from both institutional and retail investors.
The second week of June has emerged as a critical juncture. Short liquidations totaled just over $100 million in the 24 hours through Monday, while order book data suggests spot selling pressure may be easing. This combination — lower liquidations paired with reduced exchange inflows — marks a meaningful shift in investor behavior after weeks of intense capitulation.
Support Zone Becomes Make-or-Break Level
Trader Killa has identified $60,400 to $60,900 as Bitcoin’s “most important” support region to watch this week. Should the price revisit this zone and fail to hold, Killa warned that the cryptocurrency could trend “directly to the lows again,” signaling a potential breakdown to fresh bear-market bottoms.
The stakes are clear. Bitcoin’s ability to defend this support will determine whether the current rally represents genuine trend reversal or another false bounce. Analyst Roman, despite acknowledging that a macro low may still lie ahead, remains constructive on longer timeframes, citing “dozens of macro reversal signs” across higher-timeframe charts.
Equities Provide Tailwind as Fed Stays Patient
The broader stock market continues to support Bitcoin’s recovery. The S&P 500 gained 15% in the second quarter and has been finding support at key levels, while smaller stocks and equal-weight indices are hitting record highs. This risk-on environment matters: expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate hikes have softened considerably following recent inflation and labor data.
The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in rates holding steady through both July and September. For a risk asset like Bitcoin, this dovish shift removes a major headwind that plagued markets throughout 2023 and early 2024.
Even more striking, retail investor demand for short-term options has reached record levels, according to The Kobeissi Letter. This suggests that despite crypto’s exodus of retail capital earlier this year, the appetite for leveraged upside bets has rebounded sharply.
Warning Flags: Midterm Correction Risk
Not everyone shares the bullish mood. Andre Dragosch, European research head at Bitwise, has flagged warning signals from the MacroQuant Equity Risk Model that echo late 2021 — the peak of Bitcoin’s previous bull market. The concern centers on a potential stock market correction ahead of the US Midterms.
However, Dragosch offered crucial context: crypto markets may have already priced in this downside scenario. “Even if an AI crash and a subsequent US recession materialized, much of that pain appears to be already reflected in Bitcoin prices,” he argued. This implies reduced downside risk from current levels, provided the macro thesis holds.
Whale Exodus Slows as Sentiment Eases
Exchange inflow data reveals a marked change in conviction among large Bitcoin holders. CryptoQuant found that whale inflows to Binance have fallen nearly $2.4 billion since mid-June, while retail inflows declined more modestly. The cooling is significant because it suggests whales are no longer dumping at desperate prices — a necessary precondition for market stabilization.
The gap between retail and whale inflows widened from $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion, indicating that whale activity is slowing faster than retail participation. The critical question now is whether this stabilization persists or accelerates downward.
Crypto market sentiment, measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, has doubled to 24/100 since the start of July and is on the verge of exiting “extreme fear” for the first time in over a month. Trader Master of Crypto cautioned that while the improvement is clear, “fear is easing, not gone” — a reminder that sentiment remains fragile.
The $65,000 Test Looms
For bulls to confirm a genuine reversal, Bitcoin must break decisively above $65,000. Analyst Anndy Lian noted that a successful move above this threshold would allow the market to test the 100-day moving average near $69,500. Failure to sustain momentum, by contrast, “carries severe downside risks.”
This week brings fresh volatility catalysts: the Fed will release minutes from its June meeting, alongside purchasing managers index data and employment releases. Markets are bracing for earnings season, which typically triggers rotations between risk-on and risk-off positioning.
The setup favors bulls, but only if support holds. The next 48 hours will determine whether the $60,400-$60,900 zone acts as a floor or merely a temporary pause.