Bitcoin entered the final full week of July clinging to a critical technical floor, even as geopolitical tensions and faltering spot demand create competing headwinds. According to reporting by CoinTelegraph, the world’s largest cryptocurrency preserved its 200-week trend line at the weekly close, setting the stage for traders to position for a potential near-term bounce toward $67,000.
The week ahead will test whether this technical hold translates into genuine momentum or merely a pause before deeper losses. Macro conditions remain unsettled: US-Iran tensions have oil futures trading at five-week highs, corporate earnings from Tesla, Alphabet and Intel loom as volatility catalysts, and spot Bitcoin demand continues to deteriorate despite consistent exchange-traded fund inflows.
Bitcoin Holds Key Support, Traders See Path to $67K
Bitcoin dipped to $63,700 in early Monday trading after the weekly close, but bulls remained undeterred. Trader Jelle flagged the possibility of “further relief this week — towards 65-67k,” reflecting confidence that support at the 200-week simple moving average (currently $63,322) would hold firm.
Daan Crypto Trades added a layer of caution to the optimism. He noted that Bitcoin had sealed its third consecutive weekly close above the 200-week moving average, but warned that without a “strong push higher” to reclaim the 200-week exponential moving average at $68,521, the asset remained trapped in a choppy $60,000 range.
Trader Roman doubled down on bullish conviction, flagging multiple bullish divergences across relative strength index and other price metrics—a classic pattern preceding reversals. Yet the broader technical picture was muddied by seasonal headwinds. Rekt Capital’s analysis of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle suggested the bear market was only 70% complete, with 2026 expected to remain a year of decline before any sustained recovery in 2027.
Geopolitical Risk Pushes Oil Higher, Weighing on Risk Assets
The escalation in US-Iran tensions injected fresh volatility into risk-asset markets this week. Iran’s foreign minister warned of “unresolvable” nuclear disputes while President Donald Trump called for Iran to be added to a Russia-focused sanctions bill, a signal of intensifying confrontation.
Oil futures surged in response. West Texas Intermediate crude topped $80 per barrel for the first time in five weeks, while Brent crude breached $90. The Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil supply—faced renewed closure risk, reversing gains made under a now-failed US-Iran peace deal.
For Bitcoin traders, the correlation matters. Higher oil prices can signal inflation concerns that typically weigh on risk appetite, though Bitcoin has historically benefited from geopolitical safe-haven flows. This week’s earnings deluge from major tech names will likely dominate near-term volatility, potentially overshadowing crypto-specific moves.
Spot Demand Weakness Threatens Rally Sustainability
A persistent structural weakness threatens to derail any Bitcoin rally born of technical bounces: spot market demand remains deeply negative. CryptoQuant data revealed that while spot demand recovered sharply to -80K BTC in early July, it had deteriorated again to nearly -170K BTC by late July, erasing the gains entirely.
Paradoxically, US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remained positive for four of the past five trading days—a disconnect that reveals the true driver of recent price stability. Derivatives markets, not underlying spot demand, have been propping up the asset. CryptoQuant contributor ScenarioX warned that this structural fragility could unwind violently once futures demand exhausts itself.
“Despite this significant decline in spot demand, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable, mainly due to easing short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market,” ScenarioX said, adding that “the rally without meaningful spot demand is likely to end in a significant long liquidation event.”
The implication was clear: any bounce toward $67,000 risked becoming a bear trap unless genuine institutional and retail buyers re-entered the spot market.
Puell Multiple Signals Easing Miner Pressure, Not Capitulation
Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple—a gauge of miner profitability measured against historical norms—posted its lowest reading since September 2024 in June at 0.87. The metric has since recovered modestly, but debate raged over whether this constituted a true generational low.
CryptoQuant’s TheChessOnChain offered nuance. Historical analysis showed that each Bitcoin cycle produced higher lows for the Puell Multiple, suggesting miners today never face the same existential pressure as in past bear markets. The driver: Bitcoin’s drawdowns have grown shallower over time (down 83% in 2018, 77% in 2022, and less since), so miner income never sinks as deep.
This pattern had a troubling implication for capitulation watchers. Waiting for the Puell Multiple to drop below 0.5—the classic deep-value zone where miners sell at a loss—may be chasing a level that no longer materializes. “Today reads as easing miner pressure, not a generational low,” TheChessOnChain cautioned. “It turns decisive only if it holds beneath recent lows for weeks.”
Fear and Greed Index Nears Two-Month High
One metric offered genuine encouragement: the Crypto Fear and Greed Index climbed to 29/100 on Monday—still in “fear” territory but at its highest level since the start of June. For much of the intervening period, the gauge had languished in “extreme fear,” reflecting capitulation among retail investors.
The timing aligned with a resurgence in ETF inflows and what Santiment characterized as a return of “crypto policy optimism.” After spending May and June in outflow mode, institutional money through spot ETFs had begun flowing back in. Last week’s better-than-expected US inflation data, celebrated by Trump as “great news,” had eased recession concerns and boosted risk appetite broadly.
Yet the relief rally faced steep resistance. Fed futures remained anchored on a September rate cut probability of 25%, offering little tailwind for risk assets if growth data deteriorates. Bitcoin’s bounce, in other words, could prove ephemeral—impressive in the short term but ultimately beholden to forces far larger than technical levels or miner capitulation metrics.