Bitcoin’s onchain profitability metrics are flashing their strongest bullish signal in months, yet the divergence between technical recovery and macro conviction among top analysts reveals a market still wrestling with uncertainty about whether the bear phase has truly ended.

According to reporting by CoinTelegraph, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) — a widely watched indicator of whether coins moving across the Bitcoin network are being transacted at a profit or loss — has remained above its breakeven level of 1.0 for three consecutive weeks. That marks the longest bullish stretch for the metric in 2026 to date.

SOPR works by comparing the price at which a coin last moved onchain against its current price. Readings above 1 signal that holders are predominantly realizing gains, typically interpreted as a sign of healthy bull-market behavior. Data from CryptoQuant shows the metric currently sitting at 1.002, a marginal but sustained positive signal.

August’s 25% Rally Stirs Fresh Bull Hopes

The recovery follows Bitcoin’s 25% rally through August, which lifted BTC/USD into a trading range around $80,000. That price action, combined with the three-week SOPR run, has prompted some onchain analysts to argue that Bitcoin is replicating early bull-market conditions rather than the weak recoveries typical of bear markets.

Checkonchain, a respected onchain analytics platform, drew a key distinction between bear-market and bull-market behavior: “In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold. In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups. The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.”

Breaking down SOPR by investor cohort — specifically short-term holders (STHs) with less than six months of holding history — reveals that even newer participants are showing profit-taking discipline rather than panic selling. That pattern further supports the case for an emerging bull backdrop.

Puell’s Caution: More Proof Required

Yet one of the crypto industry’s most influential analysts is pushing back against premature declarations of a bear-market bottom.

David Puell, an ARK Invest portfolio manager and creator of the Puell Multiple indicator, told CryptoQuant on September 4 that the current evidence remains insufficient to rule out fresh macro lows in the current cycle. When asked about Bitcoin’s outlook into Q4 2026, Puell described further downside as the more probable outcome.

“In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk,” he said.

Puell set a high bar for changing his bias. He flagged SOPR as essential — but only if it remains elevated for an extended period while investors “realize profits consistently without price going back to a new low.” Equally critical, he argued, is a shift in Bitcoin’s weekly price structure to show a pattern of higher highs and lower lows, a formation that remains absent in current charts.

Why This Matters

The tension between bullish onchain data and cautious macro conviction highlights a broader market challenge: technical indicators of profitability can precede sustainable trend reversals by weeks or even months. A three-week SOPR run is encouraging, but it is not a guarantee.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $80,000 while maintaining SOPR discipline will be closely watched as a test of conviction. If the metric extends its bullish streak to eight or twelve weeks without a price reversal to new lows, that would validate the bull-market structure Checkonchain is observing. Conversely, a sharp drop below $80,000 paired with SOPR turning negative would suggest the current rally was merely another bear-market bounce — precisely the pattern Puell is positioning for.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, took a more optimistic stance in late August, declaring the bear market “over” based on readings from the platform’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator. But that declaration itself underscores how fragmented market consensus remains on whether Bitcoin has bottomed.

For traders and investors, the message is clear: one month of profitability data is progress, not proof.