Bitcoin climbed 1% to just above $86,000 on Monday morning as traders sharply reduced their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, driven by a disappointing U.S. employment report released Friday.
The weak jobs data triggered a broader market repricing of monetary policy risk. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September—less than a third of the 84,000 economists had forecast. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and wage growth decelerated to 3% year-over-year, marking the slowest pace since May 2021.
According to analysis by QCP Capital, these metrics substantially reduce the probability of an October rate decision, which has bolstered appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin that typically benefit from a dovish policy environment.
Altcoins gain as sentiment improves
Dogecoin led the broader cryptocurrency market with a 3% gain, while Ether and XRP each added roughly 1%. Solana, BNB, and Zcash dipped less than 1% on the day. The modest breadth of losses suggested traders were rotating selectively rather than exiting risk positions wholesale.
Weekend liquidations remained light at $62.7 million, with short positions accounting for 68% of the total, indicating limited forced selling pressure across derivatives markets.
Resistance levels and treasury constraints
Despite Bitcoin’s bounce, a structural headwind persists in fixed income markets. The 10-year Treasury yield remains anchored at 5.25%, well above levels typical during dovish Fed cycles. QCP Capital attributed this stickiness to heavy issuance of long-dated government debt and the additional yield investors now demand to hold extended maturities.
This dynamic matters for Bitcoin’s next move. QCP noted that acceptance above $87,200 will be required to confirm a sustained rally. The firm’s language suggests traders are treating current levels as contested rather than decisively broken.
Fed minutes due Wednesday
The real test arrives mid-week when the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its most recent policy meeting. Those documents will reveal whether officials view the September employment miss as a one-off or the start of a broader labour market deterioration. A hawkish tilt in the language could rekindle rate-hike expectations and undermine Bitcoin’s recent strength.