Bitcoin has broken out of a prolonged period of underperformance against the S&P 500, matching the broad market index in returns during exactly half of US trading sessions over the past 90 days. According to reporting by onchain analytics platform Glassnode, this represents the first time since March 2025 that Bitcoin’s win rate has reached the 50% threshold.
The metric matters because it tracks which asset delivered better daily returns, session by session. For much of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won—a sign of relative weakness against equities. Now, that has flipped.
“A return to an even split ends a long stretch of underperformance,” Glassnode noted in its latest Week Onchain newsletter. “Should the win rate climb above 50% and hold there, it would show Bitcoin regaining strength against equities.”
Bitcoin’s Session Gains Edging Out Stocks
Beyond the 50-50 split, Bitcoin’s average per-session gains have also begun to outpace those of the S&P 500, albeit only slightly. This dual improvement suggests that institutional flows and retail momentum may be shifting in cryptocurrency’s favour, at least on a near-term basis.
Bitcoin’s 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 stands at 0.63 on TradingView, a markedly positive reading that intensified in August as both assets rallied on expectations of expanded US Treasury debt buybacks. Higher correlation typically means Bitcoin and stocks move in tandem—not a surprising development given how macroeconomic sentiment now drives both risk assets.
Election Results Create Historical Tailwind for Stocks
The timing of Bitcoin’s recovery coincides with Democratic gains in the US midterm elections, which historically have preceded strong equity market performance.
Data compiled by crypto asset manager Capriole Investments examined all Democratic sweeps of Congress—both House and Senate seats—under Republican presidents since 1922. That scenario has occurred seven times. In each instance, the S&P 500 averaged 10.7% gains over the subsequent three months, 17.5% after six months, and 15.5% over a full year.
“There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had,” Capriole founder Charles Edwards wrote on X, citing the historical record.
What This Means for Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Bitcoin’s recovery to parity with the S&P 500 in session-by-session performance is noteworthy but not yet decisive. A single 90-day period does not signal a sustained trend reversal, and institutional traders will watch closely to see whether the win rate can climb above 50% and hold.
If it does, the implication would be clear: Bitcoin is reasserting itself as a growth asset in a risk-on environment, rather than a lagging hedge against equity volatility. The next 30 to 90 days will be critical in determining whether this represents a genuine shift in relative strength or simply a temporary convergence driven by election-driven optimism.