Galaxy Digital has slashed its odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act passing in 2026 to just 10%, according to analysis from the firm’s head of research Alex Thorn. The dramatic downgrade reflects mounting friction over stablecoin yield provisions and a drastically compressed legislative calendar.
The firm has now cut its estimate four times in three months. On May 22, Galaxy pegged passage odds at 75%. By June 6, that dropped to 60%. A week later it fell to 50%. Friday’s X post marked the steepest decline yet.
The Stablecoin Yield Standoff
The central friction revolves around stablecoin yield. The CLARITY Act, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, would establish the first federal framework for digital assets in the US. But banks and Democratic lawmakers argue the bill would allow crypto platforms to offer yields on stablecoins without the same regulatory guardrails imposed on traditional financial institutions.
Over 200 crypto companies signed a letter in early June urging Senate passage, but the banking industry’s opposition has only hardened since then. That pressure shows no signs of easing.
An Impossible Timeline
The legislative math has become brutal. When the Senate reconvenes on September 14, it will have roughly two to three weeks before the chamber’s working calendar effectively closes. For the CLARITY Act to pass in that window, it would need immediate motion approval upon lawmakers’ return—and would then need to dominate the entire remaining session, Thorn wrote.
That assumes no other legislative priorities compete for floor time. In reality, the September calendar fills fast with must-pass bills, appropriations votes, and other partisan disputes.
Unresolved Political Questions
Beyond stablecoins, multiple other issues remain unresolved. Ethics rules governing government officials’ involvement in crypto have yet to be hammered out. Disagreements over regulatory authority between the SEC, CFTC, and banking regulators also linger. These gaps suggest the bill is nowhere near final form—despite clearing committee.
The CLARITY Act still has support among prominent crypto advocates and some Senate Republicans. But without movement on the core stablecoin question and a willingness to sacrifice other legislative priorities, Galaxy’s 10% estimate now looks optimistic.