Bitcoin has stalled near $64,000 after a sharp Monday rally, as rising Treasury yields and crude oil prices weigh on risk assets ahead of two major events scheduled for Wednesday. According to CoinDesk reporting, the world’s largest cryptocurrency shed 0.6% since midnight UTC while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 1.1%, signalling a broader equity market retreat.

The pullback reflects growing caution in advance of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and a White House crypto summit where President Trump is expected to meet with industry executives. These events carry outsized influence over bitcoin pricing, which has traded in a range-bound pattern for weeks as policy uncertainty persists.

Oil and Yields Drive the Selloff

Brent crude climbed back to $94 a barrel after a 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired Monday without a renewal, reigniting inflation concerns. The jump in oil prices, combined with rising bond yields, has pressured equity futures and spilled into crypto markets.

Bitcoin’s retreat from Monday’s peak of $64,600 (up from $62,600) underscores the cryptocurrency’s continued correlation with broader risk sentiment. When traditional equities struggle, bitcoin typically follows suit, despite arguments from some analysts that it should act as a hedge during periods of monetary uncertainty.

Derivatives Data Shows Selective Bullishness

The data underneath bitcoin’s price action tells a more nuanced story. Long-to-short taker volume ratios in futures flipped decisively bullish on Monday, with longs accounting for over 51% of trading flow. This suggests aggressive buyers, not sellers, are driving the marginal trade.

More telling, annualized perpetual funding rates on bitcoin surged to a 20-month high, according to CryptoQuant. Positive funding rates mean traders are paying a premium to hold long positions, a sign of greed rather than fear. Yet open interest in bitcoin futures has remained anchored around 750,000 BTC for weeks—large but stable positioning that hasn’t capitulated on the recent dip.

Ether, by contrast, lost around 1% since midnight, while smaller tokens including Solana, Stellar, and TAO showed weakness. The divergence matters: bitcoin’s relative outperformance amid a mixed market suggests buyers are choosing the largest asset over alternatives.

Options Markets Price in December Upside

The options market is pricing in potential upside, though with a long time horizon. The $70,000-strike call expiring Sept. 25 ranked as the most-traded bitcoin option in the past 24 hours. For ether, the $2,080 call expiring Aug. 28 dominated, signalling traders expect a move higher but aren’t betting on imminent gains.

Low implied volatility indexes—hovering near year lows for both bitcoin and ether—have created openings for traders seeking to build tactical positions. Trading firm TDX Strategies noted the quiet environment favors accumulation ahead of December expiries, particularly for bitcoin and selected altcoins like Solana.

What Wednesday Brings

The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its July 28-29 meeting on Wednesday, the same day Trump meets with crypto industry leaders. Two consecutive softer inflation readings have sparked debate about the Fed’s next move, and the minutes could telegraph whether a rate cut is imminent.

For bitcoin, a dovish Fed signal could validate the bullish positioning evident in futures markets. A hawkish lean would test whether buyers can sustain their bets at current levels. The White House meeting adds another layer of uncertainty—regulatory clarity or mixed signals from the administration could swing sentiment sharply.

Until then, bitcoin trades in a holding pattern, caught between positive derivative flows and rising macro headwinds.